Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tommy McMillen
Manolo Zecchini
71%
29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McMillen: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Zecchini: 20 sig / 0 TD
Tommy McMillen
Manolo Zecchini
44
Sig strikes landed
19
83
Sig strikes attempted
51
69
Total strikes landed
29
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tommy McMillen
"Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1
Manolo Zecchini
"Angelo Veneziano"
11-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
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