Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ethyn Ewing
Rafael Estevam
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
69"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
11-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-1
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ewing: 114 sig / 0 TD ·
Estevam: 44 sig / 0 TD
Ethyn Ewing
Rafael Estevam
22
Sig strikes landed
36
49
Sig strikes attempted
66
43
Total strikes landed
59
-0.2
Takedowns landed
3.1
0.5
Takedowns attempted
10.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
26s
Control time
275s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ethyn Ewing
"The Professor Finesser"
11-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
—
Blue corner
W3
Rafael Estevam
"Macapa"
15-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—