Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dione Barbosa
Melissa Gatto
42%
58%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
9-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-3-2
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Barbosa: 30 sig / 3 TD ·
Gatto: 33 sig / 3 TD
Dione Barbosa
Melissa Gatto
36
Sig strikes landed
40
76
Sig strikes attempted
76
62
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
160s
Control time
247s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dione Barbosa
"The Witch"
9-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
Blue corner
W1
Melissa Gatto
10-3-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—