Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kai Kamaka III
Dakota Hope
79%
21%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
D1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kamaka III: 105 sig / 0 TD ·
Hope: 106 sig / 1 TD
Kai Kamaka III
Dakota Hope
47
Sig strikes landed
56
115
Sig strikes attempted
101
79
Total strikes landed
71
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
220s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Kai Kamaka III
"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
18-7-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 4
D
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
Blue corner
Dakota Hope
"Huracan"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Age
29