Back to UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan ·Meta Apex
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Guilherme Pat
Thomas Petersen
54% 46%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 7"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
7-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Pat: 17 sig / 0 TD · Petersen: 28 sig / 0 TD
Guilherme Pat
Thomas Petersen
44
Sig strikes landed
44
84
Sig strikes attempted
88
60
Total strikes landed
77
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Guilherme Pat

"Kong"
7-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
Blue corner
L1

Thomas Petersen

"The Train"
11-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—