Main
Welterweight
Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Niko Price
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
38
Age
Δ 2y
36
21-7
Career record
Δ 18 pp
16-12
W3
Current streak
L3
21
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chiesa: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Price: 1 sig / 1 TD
Michael Chiesa
Niko Price
42
Sig strikes landed
31
75
Sig strikes attempted
69
65
Total strikes landed
42
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
7.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
255s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
Blue corner
L3
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
20 fights · 8-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
L
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—