Main
Featherweight
Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Lerryan Douglas
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
L1
Current streak
—
17
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Erosa: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Douglas: 29 sig / 0 TD
Julian Erosa
Lerryan Douglas
58
Sig strikes landed
43
107
Sig strikes attempted
87
75
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
105s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
Blue corner
Lerryan Douglas
"Gunslinger"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31