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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer ·Climate Pledge Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Ricky Simon
Adrian Yanez
65% 35%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
34
Age
Δ 1y
32
22-8-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Simon: 44 sig / 2 TD · Yanez: 71 sig / 0 TD
Ricky Simon
Adrian Yanez
48
Sig strikes landed
55
113
Sig strikes attempted
127
63
Total strikes landed
61
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
180s
Control time
16s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ricky Simon

22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
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W UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
Blue corner
L1

Adrian Yanez

17-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
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L UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
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L UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
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