Back to UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer ·Climate Pledge Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alexia Thainara
Bruna Brasil
84% 16%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
30
Age
Δ 2y
33
15-1
Career record
Δ 39 pp
11-8-1
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thainara: 73 sig / 6 TD · Brasil: 37 sig / 0 TD
Alexia Thainara
Bruna Brasil
33
Sig strikes landed
27
73
Sig strikes attempted
63
76
Total strikes landed
47
3.2
Takedowns landed
0.0
6.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
381s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Alexia Thainara

"Burguesinha"
15-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
W UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
Blue corner
L1

Bruna Brasil

11-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
W UFC - Road to UFC 4.6
L UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…