Main
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Terrance McKinney
Kyle Nelson
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
18-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-7-1
L1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McKinney: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 1 sig / 0 TD
Terrance McKinney
Kyle Nelson
34
Sig strikes landed
30
68
Sig strikes attempted
59
46
Total strikes landed
45
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
117s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
18-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
—
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
18-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—