Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Casey O'Neill
Gabriella Fernandes
73%
27%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
28
Age
Δ 4y
33
12-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
12-4
W1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
O'Neill: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Fernandes: 8 sig / 0 TD
Casey O'Neill
Gabriella Fernandes
82
Sig strikes landed
66
165
Sig strikes attempted
139
95
Total strikes landed
83
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
191s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Casey O'Neill
"King"
12-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
Blue corner
W3
Gabriella Fernandes
"Gabi"
12-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—