Prelims1
Lightweight
Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Hooper
Lance Gibson Jr.
78%
22%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
16-6-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-3
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hooper: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Gibson Jr.: 13 sig / 0 TD
Chase Hooper
Lance Gibson Jr.
54
Sig strikes landed
31
103
Sig strikes attempted
62
75
Total strikes landed
44
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
221s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
16-6-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
L1
Lance Gibson Jr.
"Fearless"
10-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—