Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mario Pinto
Felipe Franco
63%
37%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pinto: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Franco: 21 sig / 0 TD
Mario Pinto
Felipe Franco
30
Sig strikes landed
15
46
Sig strikes attempted
21
66
Total strikes landed
29
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.0
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
293s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mario Pinto
13-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
Blue corner
Felipe Franco
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25