Back to UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Prelims1 Middleweight

Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mantas Kondratavicius
Antonio Trocoli
74% 26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
27
Age
Δ 9y
35
—
Current streak
L3
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kondratavicius: 75 sig / 2 TD · Trocoli: 17 sig / 1 TD
Mantas Kondratavicius
Antonio Trocoli
37
Sig strikes landed
24
58
Sig strikes attempted
52
53
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
151s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Mantas Kondratavicius

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L3

Antonio Trocoli

"Malvado"
12-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
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