Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael Page
Sam Patterson
65%
35%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
26-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
15-3-1
W2
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Page: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Patterson: 12 sig / 0 TD
Michael Page
Sam Patterson
25
Sig strikes landed
18
47
Sig strikes attempted
45
44
Total strikes landed
34
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michael Page
"Venom"
26-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
39
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Sam Patterson
15-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—