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Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Iwo Baraniewski
Austen Lane
83% 17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
27
Age
Δ 11y
38
9-0
Career record
Δ 41 pp
13-9
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baraniewski: 10 sig / 0 TD · Lane: 0 sig / 0 TD
Iwo Baraniewski
Austen Lane
31
Sig strikes landed
17
48
Sig strikes attempted
28
48
Total strikes landed
23
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
123s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Iwo Baraniewski

"Rudy"
9-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
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Blue corner
L2

Austen Lane

13-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 6 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
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L UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
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