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Main Featherweight

Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr.

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luke Riley
Michael Aswell Jr.
68% 32%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
14-0
Career record
Δ 25 pp
12-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Riley: 100 sig / 0 TD · Aswell Jr.: 61 sig / 1 TD
Luke Riley
Michael Aswell Jr.
51
Sig strikes landed
33
110
Sig strikes attempted
85
84
Total strikes landed
25
1.9
Takedowns landed
-0.1
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
-12s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Luke Riley

14-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
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Blue corner
W1

Michael Aswell Jr.

"The Texas Kid"
12-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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