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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Louie Sutherland vs Brando Pericic

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Louie Sutherland
Brando Pericic
48% 52%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
11-6
Career record
Δ 24 pp
8-1
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sutherland: 9 sig / 1 TD · Pericic: 19 sig / 0 TD
Louie Sutherland
Brando Pericic
18
Sig strikes landed
28
22
Sig strikes attempted
52
21
Total strikes landed
41
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
32s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
10%
KO/TKO
74%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Louie Sutherland

"Vanilla Gorilla"
11-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
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Blue corner
W1

Brando Pericic

"The Balkan Bear"
8-1
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
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