Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Movsar Evloev
Lerone Murphy
71%
29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
21-0
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-1-1
W8
Current streak
W8
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 5
Evloev: 86 sig / 9 TD ·
Murphy: 89 sig / 0 TD
Movsar Evloev
Lerone Murphy
71
Sig strikes landed
61
123
Sig strikes attempted
134
121
Total strikes landed
80
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
7.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
293s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Movsar Evloev
21-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
Blue corner
W8
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
18-1-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—