Prelims1
Welterweight
Chris Curtis vs Myktybek Orolbai
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chris Curtis
Myktybek Orolbai
49%
51%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
39
Age
Δ 11y
28
33-13
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-2-1
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Curtis: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Orolbai: 20 sig / 19 TD
Chris Curtis
Myktybek Orolbai
49
Sig strikes landed
53
81
Sig strikes attempted
115
61
Total strikes landed
88
-0.1
Takedowns landed
1.8
-0.2
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
20s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
33-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Myktybek Orolbai
17-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
L
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—