Back to UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Vitor Petrino
Steven Asplund
63% 37%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
15-2
Career record
Δ 8 pp
8-2
W2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Petrino: 92 sig / 0 TD · Asplund: 61 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Petrino
Steven Asplund
53
Sig strikes landed
4
88
Sig strikes attempted
16
73
Total strikes landed
18
3.5
Takedowns landed
0.0
6.4
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
238s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Vitor Petrino

15-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
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W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
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L UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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Blue corner
W1

Steven Asplund

"Concrete"
8-2
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
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