Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Eryk Anders
49%
51%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
38
Age
Δ 1y
39
21-14
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-10
L1
Current streak
L1
27
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Anders: 35 sig / 3 TD
Brad Tavares
Eryk Anders
47
Sig strikes landed
45
99
Sig strikes attempted
103
61
Total strikes landed
64
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
27 fights · 16-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
Blue corner
L1
Eryk Anders
"Ya Boi"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
19 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—