Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita vs Montse Rendon
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bia Mesquita
Montse Rendon
70%
30%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
35
Age
Δ 2y
37
8-0
Career record
Δ 20 pp
8-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mesquita: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Rendon: 0 sig / 0 TD
Bia Mesquita
Montse Rendon
45
Sig strikes landed
35
105
Sig strikes attempted
87
103
Total strikes landed
56
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
338s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bia Mesquita
"The Lady GOAT"
8-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
Blue corner
W1
Montse Rendon
"Monster"
8-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—