Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Luan Lacerda
Hecher Sosa
42%
58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 3y
31
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lacerda: 62 sig / 4 TD ·
Sosa: 104 sig / 0 TD
Luan Lacerda
Hecher Sosa
38
Sig strikes landed
44
83
Sig strikes attempted
92
54
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Luan Lacerda
14-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
Hecher Sosa
"Guanche Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31