Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Prelims1 Catch Weight

Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Regina Tarin
Ernesta Kareckaite
71% 29%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
21
Age
Δ 6y
28
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tarin: 114 sig / 1 TD · Kareckaite: 105 sig / 1 TD
Regina Tarin
Ernesta Kareckaite
57
Sig strikes landed
48
136
Sig strikes attempted
142
120
Total strikes landed
64
3.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
199s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Regina Tarin

"Kill Bill"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21
Blue corner
W1

Ernesta Kareckaite

"Heavy-Handed"
7-2-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
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