Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Prelims1 Featherweight

Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Erik Silva
Francis Marshall
29% 71%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
39
Age
Δ 12y
27
9-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-4
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Silva: 5 sig / 0 TD · Marshall: 3 sig / 1 TD
Erik Silva
Francis Marshall
25
Sig strikes landed
29
57
Sig strikes attempted
65
42
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Erik Silva

"The King"
9-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
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L UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
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Blue corner
L1

Francis Marshall

"Fire"
10-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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L UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
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