Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Damian Pinas
Wes Schultz
71%
29%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pinas: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Schultz: 3 sig / 0 TD
Damian Pinas
Wes Schultz
39
Sig strikes landed
35
81
Sig strikes attempted
73
57
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Damian Pinas
"The Baba Yaga"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Wes Schultz
"Party Time"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30