Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Prelims1 Middleweight

Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ryan Gandra
Jose Daniel Medina
71% 29%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
—
Current streak
L3
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gandra: 14 sig / 0 TD · Daniel Medina: 0 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Gandra
Jose Daniel Medina
37
Sig strikes landed
25
70
Sig strikes attempted
55
58
Total strikes landed
39
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ryan Gandra

"Problema"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L3

Jose Daniel Medina

"Chicho"
11-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
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