Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Luna
Angel Pacheco
86%
14%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
22
Age
Δ 12y
34
9-0
Career record
Δ 42 pp
7-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Luna: 131 sig / 5 TD ·
Pacheco: 56 sig / 1 TD
Santiago Luna
Angel Pacheco
61
Sig strikes landed
25
149
Sig strikes attempted
118
89
Total strikes landed
29
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Santiago Luna
"BorderBoy"
9-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Angel Pacheco
7-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—