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Prelims1 Welterweight

Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alex Morono
Daniil Donchenko
31% 69%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
36
Age
Δ 11y
24
24-14
Career record
Δ 25 pp
15-2
L3
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Morono: 40 sig / 0 TD · Donchenko: 100 sig / 0 TD
Alex Morono
Daniil Donchenko
58
Sig strikes landed
63
124
Sig strikes attempted
124
63
Total strikes landed
76
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
41s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Alex Morono

"The Great White"
24-14 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 23 fights · 13-9
Last 5
L UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
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L UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
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L UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
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W UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
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Blue corner
W1

Daniil Donchenko

15-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
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