Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Rizvan Kuniev
78%
22%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
13-4-1
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almeida: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Kuniev: 43 sig / 0 TD
Jailton Almeida
Rizvan Kuniev
31
Sig strikes landed
16
59
Sig strikes attempted
34
59
Total strikes landed
37
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.8
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
264s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
22-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rizvan Kuniev
13-4-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—