Main
Middleweight
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Marc-Andre Barriault
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
23-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-12
W2
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oleksiejczuk: 140 sig / 1 TD ·
Barriault: 77 sig / 0 TD
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Marc-Andre Barriault
49
Sig strikes landed
48
100
Sig strikes attempted
97
62
Total strikes landed
63
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michal Oleksiejczuk
"Hussar"
23-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 6-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—