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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Bruna Brasil
Ketlen Souza
39% 61%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
12-7-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-7
W1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brasil: 31 sig / 1 TD · Souza: 33 sig / 1 TD
Bruna Brasil
Ketlen Souza
39
Sig strikes landed
42
86
Sig strikes attempted
81
60
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
132s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Bruna Brasil

12-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W UFC - Road to UFC 4.6
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L UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
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L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
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Blue corner
L2

Ketlen Souza

"Esquentadinha"
16-7
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
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W UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
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