Back to UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Main Welterweight

Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jacobe Smith
Josiah Harrell
65% 35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 33 sig / 2 TD · Harrell: 7 sig / 0 TD
Jacobe Smith
Josiah Harrell
35
Sig strikes landed
21
68
Sig strikes attempted
43
69
Total strikes landed
38
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
36%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Jacobe Smith

"Cobe"
13-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
Blue corner

Josiah Harrell

"The Muscle Hamster"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27