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Main Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Serghei Spivac
Ante Delija
52% 48%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
31
Age
Δ 4y
36
18-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
26-9
L2
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Spivac: 67 sig / 1 TD · Delija: 61 sig / 0 TD
Serghei Spivac
Ante Delija
26
Sig strikes landed
35
48
Sig strikes attempted
66
40
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Serghei Spivac

"Polar Bear"
18-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
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L UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
L1

Ante Delija

"Walking Trouble"
26-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
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