Back to UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Main Middleweight

Zach Reese vs Michel Pereira

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Zach Reese
Michel Pereira
34% 66%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
11-3
Career record
Δ 10 pp
32-15
W2
Current streak
L3
7
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Reese: 74 sig / 1 TD · Pereira: 63 sig / 2 TD
Zach Reese
Michel Pereira
37
Sig strikes landed
43
81
Sig strikes attempted
70
47
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
67s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Zach Reese

"Savage"
11-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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L UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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Blue corner
L3

Michel Pereira

"Demolidor"
32-15 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
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L UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
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W UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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W UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
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