Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Uros Medic
58%
42%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
36
Age
Δ 3y
33
16-9
Career record
Δ 18 pp
14-3
L1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Neal: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Medic: 10 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Uros Medic
49
Sig strikes landed
47
92
Sig strikes attempted
97
54
Total strikes landed
52
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
16-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W2
Uros Medic
"The Doctor"
14-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—