Main
Featherweight
Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Ige
Melquizael Costa
26%
74%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
19-12
Career record
Δ 16 pp
27-8
L1
Current streak
W5
20
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ige: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Costa: 19 sig / 1 TD
Dan Ige
Melquizael Costa
46
Sig strikes landed
51
103
Sig strikes attempted
109
54
Total strikes landed
67
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
77s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dan Ige
"100K"
19-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
20 fights · 11-9
Last 5
L
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W5
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
27-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—