Back to UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rafael Tobias
Diyar Nurgozhay
70% 30%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
23
Age
Δ 6y
29
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tobias: 39 sig / 2 TD · Nurgozhay: 94 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Tobias
Diyar Nurgozhay
34
Sig strikes landed
21
63
Sig strikes attempted
42
54
Total strikes landed
34
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rafael Tobias

"Bipolar"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
L2

Diyar Nurgozhay

11-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
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