Back to UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Luke Fernandez
Rodolfo Bellato
43% 57%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Fernandez: 16 sig / 0 TD · Bellato: 30 sig / 0 TD
Luke Fernandez
Rodolfo Bellato
37
Sig strikes landed
53
79
Sig strikes attempted
95
45
Total strikes landed
71
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Luke Fernandez

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L1

Rodolfo Bellato

"Trator"
13-4-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 1-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
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D UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
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