Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Sumudaerji
Jesus Aguilar
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 10"
62"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
20-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-4
W2
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sumudaerji: 62 sig / 4 TD ·
Aguilar: 31 sig / 1 TD
Sumudaerji
Jesus Aguilar
43
Sig strikes landed
30
76
Sig strikes attempted
67
50
Total strikes landed
42
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sumudaerji
"The Tibetan Eagle"
20-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jesus Aguilar
13-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—