Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Michael Johnson
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
37
Age
Δ 2y
40
30-15
Career record
Δ 10 pp
26-20
W1
Current streak
W3
26
UFC fights in our DB
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Dober: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 27 sig / 0 TD
Drew Dober
Michael Johnson
50
Sig strikes landed
58
120
Sig strikes attempted
123
58
Total strikes landed
77
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
60s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
26 fights · 14-11
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
Blue corner
W3
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
31 fights · 16-15
Last 5
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—