Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cody Garbrandt
Xiao Long
22%
78%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
15-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
27-12
L2
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garbrandt: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Long: 59 sig / 1 TD
Cody Garbrandt
Xiao Long
48
Sig strikes landed
52
113
Sig strikes attempted
128
57
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
75s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
15-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
L1
Xiao Long
27-12
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—