Main
Middleweight
Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Caio Borralho
Reinier de Ridder
62%
38%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
36
18-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-5
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Borralho: 57 sig / 1 TD ·
de Ridder: 55 sig / 2 TD
Caio Borralho
Reinier de Ridder
42
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
81
64
Total strikes landed
54
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
Blue corner
L1
Reinier de Ridder
"RdR"
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—