Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Charles Oliveira
44%
56%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
28-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
38-11
W1
Current streak
W1
31
UFC fights in our DB
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 50 sig / 5 TD
Max Holloway
Charles Oliveira
143
Sig strikes landed
62
195
Sig strikes attempted
120
111
Total strikes landed
71
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
31 fights · 23-8
Last 5
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
L
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
36 fights · 24-11
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—