Back to UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Prelims2 Featherweight

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Keiichiro Nakamura
Sebastian Szalay
61% 39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Nakamura: 45 sig / 0 TD · Szalay: 79 sig / 1 TD
Keiichiro Nakamura
Sebastian Szalay
38
Sig strikes landed
33
77
Sig strikes attempted
62
49
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Keiichiro Nakamura

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner

Sebastian Szalay

"Seb"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32