Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Sangwook Kim
Dom Mar Fan
50%
50%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kim: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
Mar Fan: 99 sig / 1 TD
Sangwook Kim
Dom Mar Fan
37
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
79
54
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sangwook Kim
"Frogman"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Dom Mar Fan
"Street Buddha"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26