Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Fiziev
Mauricio Ruffy
43%
57%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
14-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Fiziev: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Ruffy: 55 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Fiziev
Mauricio Ruffy
46
Sig strikes landed
45
70
Sig strikes attempted
81
45
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
55s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rafael Fiziev
"Ataman"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
L
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Mauricio Ruffy
13-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—