Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Hokit
Denzel Freeman
76%
24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
10-0
Career record
Δ 20 pp
8-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hokit: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Freeman: 0 sig / 0 TD
Josh Hokit
Denzel Freeman
31
Sig strikes landed
29
60
Sig strikes attempted
57
58
Total strikes landed
19
1.6
Takedowns landed
-0.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
145s
Control time
-23s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Hokit
10-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
Blue corner
W1
Denzel Freeman
"Luke Fox"
8-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—