Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adam Fugitt
Ty Miller
30%
70%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
37
Age
Δ 11y
26
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Fugitt: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Miller: 59 sig / 0 TD
Adam Fugitt
Ty Miller
34
Sig strikes landed
42
67
Sig strikes attempted
84
48
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Adam Fugitt
10-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
Ty Miller
"Thriller"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26